Crete, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

540
FXUS63 KOAX 142318
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
518 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Brief warm up Thursday (40s to low 50s). Slight chance for
  rain across west central Iowa (15 to 20% chance). Gusty 30 to
  35 mph winds expected in the afternoon into the nighttime
  hours.

- 20 to 50% chance of snow in northeast Nebraska and west-
  central Iowa Friday. Strong northwest winds with gusts of 40
  to 50 mph will lead to poor visibilities and some travel
  impacts (20 to 50% chance) in areas that experience snow
  showers.

- Cold air and lingering gustiness Saturday morning will combine
  for dangerous wind chills that bottom out at 5 to 15 degrees
  below zero Saturday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Today and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon continues to feature the broad
trough over the eastern half of the CONUS, with diffluence spreading
across the southernmost tier of states and ridging remaining over
the western half. Looking locally beneath the nearly northerly
mid/upper winds, gusty conditions that started out the day have been
gradually diminishing, with high pressure and calm conditions set to
move in. Highs today have crept into the upper 20s to mid 30s, with
very dry air moving in to tank relative humidity values into the
30s. This dryness has worked with what is left of the winds to make
high fire danger, that will only decrease over the next couple of
days. Overnight, we`ll cool into the teens to near 20 degrees, with
some extra room to go colder for areas that don`t see a band of
clouds swing through after midnight.

Tomorrow morning, high pressure will have pushed into the Southern
Plains and an incoming surface system will be heading here from the
northwest, both working to swing winds south-southwesterly and
boosting temperatures back into the 40s to near 50 degrees before a
cold front arrives and gives us northwesterly gusts to 25-35 mph. In
addition to the front and stronger winds, banded frontogenesis
will trail the surface boundary, working to generate mostly rain
chances that waft through eastern Nebraska and western Iowa 6
PM tomorrow into the overnight hours. We`ll be dealing with a
pretty dry vertical column overall, so chances have continued to
stay low for any rain (or some flakes overnight), with
accumulations expected to be a trace or less through Thursday.

Friday and Beyond:

Friday continues to hold the greatest potential for wintry impacts
for the forecast, driven by snow chances and windy conditions. By 6
AM, a 50+ kt 850 mb jet streak will be nosing into eastern Nebraska,
with soundings showing considerable lift below 800 mb and steep
lapse rates that do manifest some absolute instability extending
through the dendritic growth zone. Model reflectivity in several
different CAMs exhibit convective features primarily in the
form of snow showers, and shaped like cloud streets (parallel
to the mean wind). That overturning will only help the strong
low-level jet streak reach the surface, with gusts of 40-50 mph
are expected during the morning and afternoon hours out of the
northwest, and will likely necessitate a Wind Advisory. The
combination of the snow showers and wind will create whiteout
conditions where they occur, with the best chances between 6 AM
and 3 PM. With precipitation being shower-like in nature,
conditions could rapidly deteriorate as they pass a given
location, and may necessitate the issuance of a snow squall
warning or two. Overall accumulations should stay at less an
inch due to the transient nature of the showers, with the best
chances being in northeast Nebraska. After 6 PM, more and more
dry air will finish off any lingering chances for snow leaving
us with an very cold evening heading into the weekend.

Saturday morning, we`ll be at rock bottom in terms of wind chills
for the forecast. Lingering winds gusting to 20-30 mph and
temperatures between 4-14 degrees will make for wind chills on the
order of 5 to 15 degrees below zero. When we get that cold, it is
often a bit easier to squeeze some flurries out from the atmosphere,
with a few members of the global ensemble members giving us a trace
of snow.

Sunday through the remainder of the forecast period continues to
lean dry, with the area locked into northwesterly flow through the
first half of the work week. Those northwesterly winds will
also mean poorer moisture return to the area, and will keep any
meaningful rain/snow from being forecast. With that said,
several shortwaves will be pulsing through the mid/upper
atmosphere, and any subtle shift to them could easily interrupt
our currently dry extended forecast. We`ll just have to wait
until they come into focus while temperatures rebound from the
cold start of the week into the the warmer mid-week compared to
our normal highs in the low 30s for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 517 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

VFR conditions favored through the period, though guidance does
hint at some MVFR-level clouds pushing in Thursday morning and
lingering through the day. For now, think they`ll stay in the
SCT/FEW category (10% chance of BKN). Northwesterly winds early
in the period will weaken and become southerly toward 06-08Z and
remain light overnight. Winds switch back to northwesterly
late morning/early afternoon Thursday with gusts of 20-28 kts
returning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...CA