Crete, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

212
FXUS63 KOAX 090439
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1139 PM CDT Tue Apr 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy, dry conditions today-weekend will create very high
  fire danger during the afternoon and evening hours each day.

- Some smoke could move into the area this afternoon into
  tonight from ongoing fires in Kansas.

- Widely scattered showers are possible (15-20%) tonight into
  Wednesday morning. Isolated showers could develop (<15%
  chance) Wednesday afternoon into Thursday.

- A warming trend takes shape for the weekend with some areas
  reaching the mid 80s Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Apr 8 2025

We`re seeing increasing high clouds this afternoon with
gusty winds out of the south. A weak shortwave will bring a weak
surface low across our area tonight. Significant low-level dry
air should keep most of any showers from reaching the ground,
but can`t rule out a few sprinkles or a stray shower. Winds will
be shifting to northwesterly. Despite the northwesterly winds an
expansion eastward of the warmer air from downsloping flow off
the Rockies will bring temperatures up to around 70 Wednesday
afternoon. Another weak shortwave could develop a few isolated
showers again Wednesday afternoon, as the CAMs suggest, but
again any shower activity will have to overcome significant dry
air in the lower levels.

Going toward the latter half of the week, we only see
amplification of the ridge over the Rockies expanding the
surface high eastward across the Central Plains over the
Missouri River Valley. Expect the dry air mass in place to
remain through the end of the week with increasing concern
Thursday into the weekend for very high to extreme fire
conditions. While precip chances remain very low to non-existent
through the weekend, warming temperatures and gusty afternoon
winds Thursday, Saturday and Sunday could lead to these very
high to extreme fire conditions. Saturday temperatures will be
climbing into the mid 70s, and low-to-mid 80s on Sunday.

The strong ridge is finally kicked off to the east by a strong
upper-level trough Sunday into Monday. The resultant cold front
will move across our area Sunday night bringing back seasonable,
but cooler temperatures for the first half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Tue Apr 8 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the forecast
period, with winds being the primary concern. Scattered light
rain showers (15-20% chance) will move across the area tonight,
but have excluded from the TAFs for now due to their isolated
nature. TEMPO groups will be added if confidence increases. Brief
periods of scattered to broken ceilings at FL035-FL045 will be
possible as showers pass through.

LLWS has developed at KOMA and KLNK, with southwesterly to
westerly winds of 35-40 kts between 1400 and 2000 ft. LLWS is
expected to diminish by 12-14z as a frontal passage causes
surface winds to quickly veer to northwesterly. Winds will then
strengthen through the morning, with gusts potentially exceeding
20-25 kts.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...Wood